Gaels and Toreros tangle in WCC affair
NCAA Basketball Betting Lines
02/02/2012 -
Moraga, CA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The 18th-ranked Saint Mary's Gaels put an 11-
game win streak on the line this evening, as they welcome the San Diego Toreros to Moraga for a West Coast Conference matchup at McKeon Pavilion.
Randy Bennett's Gaels are clicking on all cylinders right now, at 21-2
overall and a perfect 10-0 in conference play. It is the best overall start
for SMC in school history. Saint Mary's has not suffered a loss since December
22nd against Big 12 power Baylor (72-59). Most recently, the Gales remained
unbeaten in league play with an 80-66 victory at BYU this past weekend.
Bill Grier's Toreros have struggled this season and enter this contest five
games under .500 overall (8-13) and three games below the mark in-conference
(3-6). San Diego is coming off an 84-70 loss at San Francisco and has lost two
of its last three games overall.
The Gaels are seeking the regular-season sweep after posting a 78-72 victory
at San Diego back on January 5th. With the win, Saint Mary's sports a narrow
37-35 lead in the all-time series.
With a -4.9 scoring margin, it is no wonder the Toreros have found wins hard
to come by. The team lacks any real scoring depth, netting a meager 66.4 ppg,
despite shooting a decent .440 from the floor. Another area of concern for the
team is the lack of production on the boards. USD is being outrebounded by
nearly five rebounds per game. Johnny Dee is the only player on the team
currently averaging double figures at 14.5 ppg. Chris Manresa and Darian
Norris are just below the mark with 9.4 and 9.1 ppg, respectively. The Toreros
finally put together a strong offensive showing last time out, shooting a cool
.509 from the floor against San Francisco. Unfortunately, it didn't carry over
the defensive end, as the Dons racked up 84 points in a 14-point romp. Ken
Rancifer led the Toreros with 17 points. Dee finished with 13, while Dennis
Kramer and Manresa added nine points apiece.
The Gaels are getting it done in just about every facet of the game, leading
the WCC in field-goal percentage (.483) and scoring defense (60.3 ppg). The
team has a number of invaluable contributors, headlined by Matthew Dellavedova
and Rob Jones. Dellavedova leads the team in scoring (15.4 ppg) and assists
(6-4 apg) with latter tops in the conference. Jones has the ability to score
from anywhere on the floor, but enjoys the play down low, averaging 14.3
points and a WCC-best 10.8 rebounds per game. Stephen Holt (10.7 ppg) is a
viable third scoring option and leads the WCC in steals. The Gaels displayed
their offensive firepower in the road win at BYU this past weekend, as four
players finished in double figures. Brad Waldow hit 8-of-10 from the floor to
finish with a game-high 19 points. Clint Steindl came off the bench with 16
points. Jones just missed a double-double with 13 points and nine rebounds,
while Dellavedova tallied 10 points, seven boards and four assists.
<< 24th-ranked Bulldogs set sights on Cougars
Provo, UT (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The 24th-ranked Gonzaga Bulldogs continue their
quest for the top spot in the West Coast Conference as they head to the
Marriott Center to square off with the BYU Cougars.
This will be just the second meeting bet
<< Gators and Gamecocks collide in Gainesville
Gainesville, FL (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The 12th-ranked Florida Gators put a five-
game win streak on the line this evening, as the welcome the South Carolina
Gamecocks to Gainesville for an SEC showdown at the O'Connell Center.
Billy Donovan's G
<< No.10 Murray State meets SEMO in OVC action
Murray, KY (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The 10th-ranked Murray State Racers put their
flawless record on the line this evening, when the team takes on the Southeast
Missouri State Redhawks in a key Ohio Valley Conference matchup at the CFSB
Center.
S
<< Hokies battle Blue Devils in Blacksburg
Blacksburg, VA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The seventh-ranked Duke Blue Devils get back
to conference business, as they travel to Blacksburg to take on the Virginia
Tech Hokies in an ACC matchup at Cassell Coliseum.
The Blue Devils took a break from
<< Tressel headed back to Akron in non-coaching role
Akron, OH (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Former Ohio State head football coach Jim Tressel
has been hired at the University of Akron in an administrative role.
Tressel, who received a graduate degree from Akron in 1977, will not work in
the athletic
Stony Brook to visit Syracuse, Army >>
Stony Brook, NY (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Stony Brook will travel to FBS programs
Syracuse and Army and play six home games as part of its 2012 football
schedule.
It will be the second straight year Stony Brook has scheduled two FBS
opponents. The
Bombers extend contract of GM Mack >>
Winnipeg, MB (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Winnipeg Blue Bombers on Thursday extended
the contract of general manager Joe Mack through 2014.
Mack began his current role as the head of football operations in 2010,
returning to the club for wh
Bombers re-sign QB Pierce >>
Winnipeg, MB (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Winnipeg Blue Bombers have re-signed
veteran quarterback Buck Pierce.
Per team policy, terms were not disclosed.
"We are thrilled that we were able to get a deal done with Buck," said Blue
Bomb
Tepper tabbed to head Buffalo defense >>
Buffalo, NY (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The University at Buffalo has named Lou Tepper
as its defensive coordinator.
Tepper has more than 35 years of Division I coaching experience, including a
six-year run as head coach at Illinois. He guided
Underrated Sixers fight for respect >>
Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - "Philadelphia is the only city where
you can experience the thrill of victory and the agony of reading about it the
next day," - Hall of Fame third baseman Mike Schmidt.
The Sixers could only gain a victor
The 2009 AP NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year odds have been released and Denver Broncos' running back Knowshon Moreno has been made the opening favorite.
Bet NFL Sports Lines
Moreno was selected in the first round of April's NFL draft and is expected to carry the rushing load for the Broncos this season. And with Jay Cutler now in Chicago, Moreno might be expected to be Denver's entire offense.
Betting Lines from sports betting lines have made Moreno a 5/2 favorite to win this year's Offensive Rookie of the Year Award. Fellow running back Chris “Beanie” Wells (Arizona Cardinals) is right behind Moreno at 7/2, while Donald Brown (Indianapolis Colts) and receiver Michael Crabtree (San Francisco 49ers) are 5/1 to win. Quarterbacks Mark Sanchez (New York Jets) and Matthew Stafford (Detroit Lions) are 7/1 and 8/1, respectively.
A couple of players who present some value are Josh Freeman, Shonn Green and Darrius Heyward-Bey.
Freeman needs to beat out Byron Leftwich to become the starting quarterback of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers but if he does, he has a lot or raw talent and could use the weapons around him (i.e. Kellen Winslow Jr. and Antonio Bryant) to be very successful in his first season.
Green enters a crowded backfield in New York, but considering both Thomas Jones and Leon Washington are unhappy about their contract situations and might holdout, the former Iowa product could become the Jets' primary back.
Everyone was shocked when Al Davis took Heyward-Bey with the eighth overall pick in April's draft, but the kid has a tremendous amount of talent and if quarterback JaMarcus Russell takes the next step this year, the former Maryland product could blossom. Plus, Heyward-Bey will be looking to prove the people wrong who said Oakland should have taken Michael Crabtree with the No. 8 pick.
And if you're looking for a deep sleeper, check out Pat White at 30/1. He enters the Miami Dolphins vaunted “Wild Cat” offense and could be a big time playmaker.
For complete odds on the 2009 AP NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year odds, see below.
2009 AP NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year Odds to Win
Ramses Barden (NYG) 40/1
Andre Brown (NYG) 20/1
Donald Brown (IND) 5/1
Kenny Britt (TEN) 20/1
Glenn Coffee (SFO) 30/1
Chase Coffman (CIN) 50/1
Michael Crabtree (SFO) 5/1
Josh Freeman (TB) 14/1
Shonn Green (NYJ) 14/1
Percy Harvin (MIN) 10/1
Darrius Heyward-Bay (OAK) 18/1
Juaquan Iglesias (CHI) 30/1
Cornelius Ingram (PHI) 50/1
Rashad Jennings (JAC) 30/1
Johnny Knox (CHI) 40/1
Jeremy Maclin (PHI) 18/1
Mohamed Massaquoi (CLE) 30/1
LeSean McCoy (PHI) 12/1
Knowshon Moreno (DEN) 5/2
Hakeem Nicks (NYG) 18/1
Brandon Pettigrew (DET) 30/1
Brian Robiskie (CLE) 20/1
Mark Sanchez (NYJ) 7/1
Matthew Stafford (DET) 8/1
Jason Smith (STL) 40/1
Mike Thomas (JAC) 25/1
Patrick Turner (MIA) 50/1
Mike Wallace (PIT) 50/1
Chris Wells (ARI) 7/2
Pat White (MIA) 30/1
Field (Any Other Player) 9/1
Betting Line
To visit this sports betting site go to BettingExpress.com for all your football betting lines needs.
For sports betting with credit cards site go to BettingExpress.com as well.
There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
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Bonds nearly hits HR 751, SF wins
4 and drove in
a pair of runs, and Barry Bonds nearly hit homer No. 751 as San Francisco beat
1, in the middle contest of three at AT&T Park.
6) allowed five hits and one run over 6 2/3 innings, fanning
eight and walking three.
game slide.
Bonds, who came within five homers of Hank Aaron's record on Friday, went
1 with three walks, an RBI double and scored twice. The double ...
read more
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