Maggert joins Every in lead at Waialae
Golf Betting Lines
01/14/2012 -
Honolulu, HI (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Jeff Maggert fired a six-under 64 Saturday to
join Matt Every in the lead after three rounds of the Sony Open in Hawaii.
Every, who led by two after the second round, posted a two-under 68 and ended
alongside Maggert at 12-under 198. They are two strokes clear of three other
players at Waialae Country Club.
Every will go for his first PGA Tour title on Sunday. Maggert owns three PGA
Tour titles, but hasn't won since the 2006 FedEx St. Jude Classic.
Charles Howell III and Johnson Wagner carded matching four-under 66s and were
joined in third place at minus-10 by Brendon de Jonge (67).
Duffy Waldorf (66) and D.A. Points (64) are tied for sixth at nine-under 201.
Maggert, 47, started the day four off the lead and played five groups ahead of
Every.
He tapped in a short birdie try on the fourth, then made four straight pars
before draining a nine-footer for eagle on the par-five ninth to join Every in
the lead.
Every was one-over through five holes at that point after dropping a shot on
the second, but he regained control of the tournament before making the turn.
The 28-year-old bladed a wedge from off the green on the sixth and his ball
rolled into the cup for birdie. He poured in a 29-foot birdie try at eight and
followed with a two-putt birdie on the par-five ninth.
Every made the turn at 12-under, where he was two strokes clear of David
Hearn, who dropped down the leaderboard with three bogeys early on the back
nine.
Maggert birdied the 13th to get within two of the lead and sank a five-foot
birdie putt on 16 to move to 11-under. He joined Every atop the leaderboard
with a two-putt birdie on the par-five 18th.
"Obviously, my game has been pretty good this week. My short game has been
solid and I've been putting very well," Maggert said in a televised interview.
"I never lost the competitive edge, the game just wasn't there and I've had a
couple injuries.
"I appreciate more of how good your health needs to be to compete out here.
There's just so many good young players, and when you get to my age, you've
got to take care of your body and just hope for the best."
Maggert owns a share of the 54-hole lead for the first time since the 2003
Masters.
Every parred the first six holes of the back nine but stumbled to a bogey at
No. 16 after dropping his approach in a greenside bunker. After a par on 17,
Every got up and down for birdie on the 18th to end alongside Maggert.
"First of all, it was weird starting off today because I didn't sleep real
well last night, and then I just got off to a shaky start," Every said. "It
could have gone the wrong way fast, but I was pretty proud of myself the way I
hung in there. Two-under is nothing to be ashamed about on this course,
especially on Saturday. I'm happy with it and really looking forward to having
a chance to win tomorrow."
Steve Stricker is one 11 players tied for eighth place at eight-under 202
after shooting 67. If he can rally for the win, Stricker would be the first
player since Ernie Els in 2003 to capture the season's first two events.
NOTES: Maggert has a piece of the 54-hole lead for the 10th time in his PGA
Tour career, however he won just once in the previous nine times...Every
shares the 54-hole lead for the first time...Since 80 players made the cut, 10
were cut after the third round, a group that included Chad Campbell and Tommy
Gainey.
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There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
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Bonds nearly hits HR 751, SF wins
4 and drove in
a pair of runs, and Barry Bonds nearly hit homer No. 751 as San Francisco beat
1, in the middle contest of three at AT&T Park.
6) allowed five hits and one run over 6 2/3 innings, fanning
eight and walking three.
game slide.
Bonds, who came within five homers of Hank Aaron's record on Friday, went
1 with three walks, an RBI double and scored twice. The double ...
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